The impressive AUD/USD rebound that has propelled the Australian dollar nearly 9% higher over the past two weeks is showing signs of exhaustion as it approaches the psychologically important 64c mark. Technical resistance, including the closely-watched 200-day EMA, appears to be capping further gains in this remarkable recovery phase.
Contents
AUD/USD Rebound Loses Momentum Following Treasury Comments
Tuesday’s trading session delivered a setback for the AUD/USD rebound when comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent strengthened the US dollar across major currency pairs. The resulting bearish outside day for the AUD/USD suggests potential short-term weakness despite the prevailing optimism surrounding US-China trade relations.
Bessent’s remarks at a JP Morgan-hosted investor summit indicated that a de-escalation in the US-China trade war could materialize “very soon,” acknowledging that current high tariffs represent an unsustainable economic position. While this positive trade outlook boosted equity markets, with Wall Street indices climbing approximately 2.5%, currency markets responded with a stronger US dollar.
Technical Analysis: What’s Next for the AUD/USD Rebound?
The AUD/USD rebound has been nothing short of spectacular, featuring a 4.5% single-day rally on April 9th, marking the Australian dollar’s fourth-best daily return in recorded history. This explosive move came after President Trump appeared to soften his stance in the ongoing trade dispute.
However, multiple technical factors now suggest the AUD/USD pair may need to consolidate before potentially extending higher:
- The formation of a bearish outside day pattern on Tuesday.
- Price rejection at the critical 200-day EMA.
- A double top formation coinciding with the key 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
- Bearish RSI divergence on the daily timeframe.
These technical signals collectively point toward a probable retracement to the 63c region before any potential continuation of the AUD/USD rebound toward the 0.6550 target.
Short-Term Trading Outlook for the AUD/USD Rebound
On the hourly chart, the Australian dollar has established support at the monthly S1 pivot point (0.6360), with additional support at the weekly pivot point (0.6348). Despite a bullish divergence appearing on the hourly RSI(2), bears might consider fading rallies toward 0.6380 while maintaining a bearish bias as long as prices remain under the 0.6406 swing high.
A decisive break below current support levels could accelerate the pullback toward 63c, near the weekly S1 pivot (0.6303) and the historically significant weekly volume point of control (0.6293).
Traders monitoring the AUD/USD rebound should pay close attention to USD/CNH movements, given the strong inverse correlation between these currency pairs. A rising USD/CNH would likely confirm the potential for AUD/USD weakness in the near term.
See more related articles:
Economic Catalysts for the AUD/USD Rebound
Flash PMI readings across major economies represent the primary economic data releases over the next 24 hours. Market participants will scrutinize inflationary components like “prices paid” to gauge whether upward price pressures are building amid the intensifying trade conflicts
Key PMI releases to watch that may influence the AUD/USD rebound include:
- Australian flash PMIs (09:00 AEDT)
- French and German flash PMIs (17:30 AEDT)
- Eurozone flash PMIs (18:00 AEDT)
- UK flash PMIs (18:30 AEDT)
- US flash PMIs (23:45 AEDT)
Should higher price components appear alongside deteriorating headline PMIs, new orders, and employment figures, concerns about stagflation could intensify, potentially impacting the ongoing AUD/USD rebound.
AUD/USD Rebound: Conclusion and Outlook
While the Australian dollar’s recovery has been impressive, current technical patterns suggest a period of consolidation or mild pullback is likely before the AUD/USD rebound can extend toward higher targets. Traders should maintain a watchful eye on both USD/CNH correlation and upcoming economic data releases as they navigate this potentially volatile currency pair in the days ahead.
The 63c level represents a key support zone to monitor, while resistance near 64c and the 200-day EMA continues to challenge further upside in the AUD/USD rebound.
About H2T Finance
H2T Finance delivers real-time financial news, keeping you up to date with market movements, policies, and global economic events. As part of H2T Media Group, we are committed to providing accurate information and in-depth analysis, helping investors make quick, confident decisions in an ever-changing financial landscape.
For inquiries or personalized assistance, feel free to contact us:
📞 Phone: +84933.948.888
📧 Email: [email protected]
📍 Address: 4/567 Tổ 10 Khu Phố Hòa Lân 1, Thuận An, Bình Dương, Vietnam
At H2T Finance, your success is our priority.
