Canadians vote in a pivotal federal election dramatically reshaped by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric. With the Liberals slightly ahead and the Conservatives pushing hard, the outcome could redefine Canada’s future relationship with the U.S.
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Trump’s Tariffs and Rhetoric Reshape Canadian Politics
Canadians are heading to the polls today in one of the most consequential federal elections in recent memory — an election transformed by the policies and provocations of U.S. President Donald Trump. Once projected to win by a wide margin, the Conservative Party now finds itself in a tight race with the Liberal Party under incumbent Prime Minister Mark Carney.
At the start of the year, the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre appeared poised for a sweeping victory. However, Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and inflammatory remarks about Canada becoming the “51st state” drastically shifted the political landscape. The resulting surge in nationalism and backlash helped breathe new life into Carney’s Liberals.
Liberals Hold Narrow Lead as Final Votes Are Cast
Final opinion polls suggest the Liberals hold a slight edge, but the race remains tight. The 36-day campaign ended on a sombre note following a deadly vehicle ramming attack in Vancouver that killed 11 people at a Filipino cultural event. Carney canceled a campaign stop in Hamilton to address the nation, while Poilievre added a stop in Mississauga to speak to Filipino-Canadian voters.
Carney, a former central banker for Canada and the UK, has centered his campaign on shielding Canada from what he calls “an existential threat” posed by Trump’s second term. He has urged Canada to strengthen trade ties with other allies such as the UK and EU, declaring that the “old relationship with the U.S. is over.”
Poilievre Focuses on Cost of Living and Liberal “Failures”
Poilievre, campaigning heavily in Ontario — home to 122 out of 343 parliamentary seats — has focused his message on affordability, housing costs, and crime. He criticizes the Liberals’ record under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling it a “lost decade.”
“We need change so Canadians can afford homes and food,” Poilievre told voters in Peterborough.
The Conservatives must win 172 seats to form a majority government. The Liberals currently hold 152.
The New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, faces potential losses, trailing behind the Quebec-only Bloc Québécois. Singh was present at the Vancouver festival moments before the deadly attack and canceled events out of respect. Throughout the campaign, he has positioned the NDP as a necessary check on power in Ottawa.
The Bloc, meanwhile, has failed to capitalize on Quebec voters’ anxiety over U.S. influence, with many Canadians leaning towards the major federal parties due to heightened uncertainty.
See more related articles: UK growth forecast downgraded tariff
U.S. Influence Looms Large in Canadian Election
President Trump has dominated the Canadian political discourse without directly commenting on the election. His administration continues to push rhetoric about annexation. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on national television that Trump “thinks Canada would be better off as a state.”
This election has become a de facto referendum on Canada’s relationship with the United States — and how it should respond to an increasingly aggressive neighbor.
More than 7 million Canadians have already voted in advance polls, a record-breaking early turnout. Polls opened at 8:30 a.m. local time in Newfoundland and Labrador (12:00 GMT) and will close across six time zones, ending in British Columbia at 7:00 p.m. PST (03:00 GMT Tuesday).
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